US stocks closed largely unchanged after a daylong fizzling out of the opening gap higher and the s&p closed below its 50dma despite a 3bps decline in US 10 year yields. After a period of high activity two weeks ago, we have stopped trading equity markets alltogether for now for exactly that reason; the opening may have nothing to do with the close and from what we saw, the market can now gap up or down 1% or 2% with very little chance to get out ... or back in. In a candid declaration of its CIO, Japan’s biggest life insurer said it would start selling rallies, arguing that expectations of a “Goldilocks” scenario is now fading. European shares closed literally unchanged as well and the dollar decline resumed. EURUSD gained +0.5% (to 1.2333) despite Germany reporting, on the heels of softer PMIs, a softer ZEW and IFO survey.  The German IFO expectations component fell the most in two years (to 105.4 from 108.3), the weakest in five months. France also reported weakening business confidence readings for February. As the dollar declined and with the stock rally fizzling out, gold managed to eke out some gains (+0.5%). Russia reported it increased its gold holdings in January by about 20 tons to 1,857 tons (similarly to what it has been doing since March 2015), topping China’s official reserves (most likely not the non-official ones as China, unlike Russia, does not report its monthly purchases to the IMF) of 1,843 tons. Oil rallied 2.4% and bitcoins sank 4%. Similarly to yesterday, safe haven currencies (CHF and JPY) continued to signal a return to risk aversion despite sputtering equity markets that are sending mixed and more confusing signals. We stick to our defensive posture with an equity book mostly hedged (except for a small exposure to bombed out diversified gold shares). We also believe that rising inflation is more dangerous than rising rates (even for stocks) and if the latter is interrupted by fear of fueling a correction which we think is likely (both the rate hike interruption and the correction), then inflation hedges might very well be the place to be for a while. 

BentinPartner Advisers, Basel There is more to our research than the Daily Close, the Confidometer and our blog posts. To receive actionable content, a comprehensive wrap up every day and our tactical FX and global models positioning or if you wish to be notified 24/7 with updates on key macro economic releases and/or technical breaches on our comprehensive investment universe covering international equities, bonds, FX, precious metals and commodities, take a free trial to the Bentin Daily, our premium research service. We help you know when to run and when to sit by tracking all developing (or well established) trends and equally importantly by flagging market breakouts. You may join our free trial by clicking here. https://www.bentinpartners.ch/subscribe We are leaving no stone unturned. Important Disclaimer © Copyright by BentinPartner llc. This blog is not intended as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or underlying asset referenced herein or investment advice. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the suitability of any investment strategy based on their objectives, financial situation, investment horizon and particular needs. This blog does not include information tailored to any particular investor. It has been prepared without any regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person who receives this report. Accordingly, the opinions discussed in this blog may not be suitable for all investors. You should not consider any of the content in this report as legal, tax or financial advice. The data and analysis contained herein are provided "as is" and without warranty of any kind. BentinPartner llc, its employees, or any third party shall not have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained in any publication published by BentinPartner llc. The content and views expressed in this report represents the opinions of Marc Bentin and should not be construed as guarantee of performance with respect to any referenced sector. We remind you that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although BentinPartner llc believes the information and content included in this report have been obtained from sources considered reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of such information. This blog is also not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the industries, markets or developments referred to in the blog.