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What Inflation Expectations Are Telling us...


Not much except that US inflation expectations are right there at 2% and EUR inflation expectations at 1.75% with both heading higher, enough for Fed officials to start talking about introducing some flexibility in its already soft target and for the ECB to start talking about taking the foot off the metal as the 2% (for them so far a hard limit) target approaches...of course these are only inflation expectations from the tips market but unless we say those expectations are wrong, they clearly show that the deflation scare is gone and to be replaced by something else...that is what the bond market tries to tell us at least. As regards Europe, bank lending to household (green line) was the problem and has been resolved. Salary wages are not going to be a “problem” anywhere, courtesy to the uberisation and robotisation of society (Switzerland is rightfully in my mind talking about taxing them) but commodity strength and perhaps more acutely dollar weakness deserve a watch as a threat to the inflation outlook, in our view. 

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