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  • Marc Bentin

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German shares took in stride the week end news that D. Trump might push forward with not only tariffs on aluminum and steel but all sorts of goods from Europe. European shares were mostly driven by Germany’s leading utilities rallying after a €43bn takeover deal by Eon of renewables company Innogy. With not much else to chew and besides an initial push higher, momentum faded quickly, leaving he S&P slightly lower but the Nasdaq slightly higher for the day. Stocks were again led by a narrow group of big cap tech stocks, with the NDX 100 driving all the gains. The dollar rallied initially but ended slightly weaker in particular vs. EM, awaiting tomorrow’s US inflation and Wednesday’s retail sales data. Gold rejected a new low yesterday. What was most encouraging was the falling correlation with everything else gold has nothing to do with or should be negatively correlated starting with stocks and the dollar. This is restoring the interest of owning some gold for diversification purpose. Bitcoins hovered its recent lows. The Metrics we look at suggest excessive optimism as greed succeeded fear perhaps a little too swiftly, one month after a scary drop. Risk reversals (below their five-year averages!) and depressed put/call open interest ratios suggest dried out appetite for equity markets hedges. Despite Europe’s idiosyncratic reason to rally yesterday, Chinese markets also failed to rally overnight as China geared for industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment on Wednesday which are all likely to point to slower growth. Bond yields fell slightly, CHF gained as did JPY. With synchronized growth on the wane as suggested by the Citi Economic surprise index showing divergences, we are pulling back our horns following the market runaway gains of the past few days... 

BentinPartner Advisers, Basel There is more to our research than the Daily Close, the Confidometer and our blog posts. To receive actionable content, a comprehensive wrap up every day and our tactical FX and global models positioning or if you wish to be notified 24/7 with updates on key macro economic releases and/or technical breaches on our comprehensive investment universe covering international equities, bonds, FX, precious metals and commodities, take a free trial to the Bentin Daily, our premium research service. We help you know when to run and when to sit by tracking all developing (or well established) trends and equally importantly by flagging market breakouts. You may join our free trial by clicking here. https://www.bentinpartners.ch/subscribe We are leaving no stone unturned. Important Disclaimer © Copyright by BentinPartner llc. This blog is not intended as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or underlying asset referenced herein or investment advice. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the suitability of any investment strategy based on their objectives, financial situation, investment horizon and particular needs. This blog does not include information tailored to any particular investor. It has been prepared without any regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person who receives this report. Accordingly, the opinions discussed in this blog may not be suitable for all investors. You should not consider any of the content in this report as legal, tax or financial advice. The data and analysis contained herein are provided "as is" and without warranty of any kind. BentinPartner llc, its employees, or any third party shall not have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained in any publication published by BentinPartner llc. The content and views expressed in this report represents the opinions of Marc Bentin and should not be construed as guarantee of performance with respect to any referenced sector. We remind you that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although BentinPartner llc believes the information and content included in this report have been obtained from sources considered reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of such information. This blog is also not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the industries, markets or developments referred to in the blog.   


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