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Weekly Trend Status Update


Risk markets remained buoyant last week with the S&P500 rallying 2,2% (15,5% YTD, Z-score 2,1) and the Nasdaq100 rallied 2,8% (19,7% YTD), supported by progress reported on the trade front and improving data in particular after last Friday’s US job report which erased most of the previous reading negativity. On Thursday, weekly jobless claims had also fallen to a 50-year low. International markets further outperformed on the way up, driven by the DAX which recouped +4.4% last week on improving prospects about China and as consolidation talks supported the banking sector which rallied +4,6% (12,1%). Eurostoxx50 added 2,9% (14,4%), outperforming the S&P500 by 0,7%. Diversified EM equities (VWO) rallied 3,2% (15,1%, Z-score 2,0), out-performing the S&P500 by 1,0% and the strongest EM market was again China’s CSI300 index (ASHR) which rallied 7,2% (40,4%, Z-score 2,2). Russian shares (RSX) rallied 2,9% (13,0%). Indian shares (EPI) still lagged a little but are quietly coming back with a 1,0% gain (7,2%). The Dollar DXY Index (UUP) measuring the USD performance vs. other G7 currencies gained 0,1% (2,4%) while the MSCI EM currency index (measuring the performance of EM currencies vs. the USD) gained 0,1% as well (2,0%). Gold gained 0,7% (1,1%) whilst Silver gained 0,5% (-2,0%). Gold shares were mostly unchanged. Gold and silver posted an encouraging COT report on Friday, suggesting that “commercials” (that are holding the market) have been covering shorts on both metals prior to the failed two take downs of last week which should reveal in next Friday’s COT report that further short covering did occur in the second half of last week from the same category. One highlight was the intensifying assault on the Fed’s independence by D. Trump’s renewed Fed bashing, his calls for the Fed to ease, to go from QT to QE along with his questionable appointments (Stephen Moore and Herman Cain) to the Board that are likely to be approved by the Senate. The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index rallied 2,9% (17,4%) with WTI Crude rallying a further 3,1% (39,8%) and Deutsche Bank commodity ETF DBC gaining 1,7% (11,6%). D. Trump did not seem happy with rising oil prices speaking about the NOPEC bill exposing OPEC members to U.S. antitrust lawsuits but with that sort of a counter threat, chances of this bill to pass are slim. 10Y US Treasuries rallied -1bps (-19bps) to 2,49%. US Aggregate Corporate Average Spread over Treasuries dropped -3bps (-37bps) to 1,16%. US High Yield (HY) Average Spread over Treasuries dropped sharply by -23bps (-158bps) to 3,68% while the bottom of the credit bag, the US High Yield (HY) Caa Average Spread over Treasuries dropped -59bps (-246bps, Z-score -2,2) to 7,43%. 10Y Bunds underperformed rising 8bps (-24bps) to 0,01% while 10Y Italian BTPs rallied -1bp (-26bps) to 2,48%, outperforming Bunds by -5bps. For those who missed last Friday’s story, here is an interesting new essay of R. Dalio on the need for capitalism to be reformed . The Hedge Fund manager cited rising inequality as a matter of national emergency. He made billions for himself and his clients over the last decades of the Central Banks’ activism that he is now blaming but this does not mean he is not right. Markets have Wednesday’s ECB meeting (and FOMC minutes!) to look for along with the Spring IMF meeting starting next Friday. Asian markets are softer this morning with China digesting some of last week’s strong gains (-1.8%) and oil rose further as fighting in Libya raised the risk of outages. S&P -6 points. ———- To receive our daily updates and market reviews, consider our premium research: https://www.bentinpartners.ch/research And join our free trial. https://www.bentinpartners.ch/subscribe Important Disclaimer © Copyright by BentinPartner llc. This communication is provided for information purposes only and for the recipient's sole use. Please do not forward it without prior authorization. It is not intended as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or underlying asset referenced herein or investment advice. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the suitability of any investment strategy based on their objectives, financial situation, investment horizon and particular needs. This report does not include information tailored to any particular investor. It has been prepared without any regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person who receives this report. Accordingly, the opinions discussed in this Report may not be suitable for all investors. You should not consider any of the content in this report as legal, tax or financial advice. The data and analysis contained herein are provided "as is" and without warranty of any kind. BentinPartner llc, its employees, or any third party shall not have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained in any publication published by BentinPartner llc. The content and views expressed in this report represents the opinions of Marc Bentin and should not be construed as guarantee of performance with respect to any referenced sector. We remind you that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although BentinPartner llc believes the information and content included in this report have been obtained from sources considered reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of such information. This Report is also not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the industries, markets or developments referred to in the Report. #fx #forex #investing #markets #riskmanagement #bankingindustry #finances #money #traders #quants  


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