top of page

Risk On Again...

BentinPartner Weekly

Dear Reader,

Friday’s payrolls report came in weaker than expected Friday with only 49k non-farm payrolls job creation (vs.105k expected and -140k last month), just sufficiently weak to require more fiscal stimulus and sufficiently strong not to stir worries about a relapse of the reflation trade.

Bonds and the dollar sold off while equities rallied further.

Precious metals came back to life, led by silver and platinum, recouping 3%.

The dollar selloff was broad-based enabling EM currencies to post solid gains as well.

Bonds witnessed a failed rally and closed lower, driven by the long end. About this, we recommend Aperture Investors’ Chairman interview on Bloomberg as he sounded a word of caution towards the bubbly parts of the equity markets and of inflation and of risk premia. He also shared some very interesting thoughts about management fees...

Hopefully, authorities will tackle the thorny issue of how to contain the bitcoins marketing push of E. Musk, M. Cuban, and secondarily that of JPMorgan research aimed at feeding bitcoins down the throat of both private and institutional investors.

There was a first Central Bank reaction over the weekend from Nigeria Central bank who said it ordered deposit-taking banks and other financial institutions to close accounts dealing in cryptocurrencies because it was threatening the country’s financial system.Cryptocurrencies are increasingly being used for money laundering, terrorism financing, and other criminal activities due to the anonymity that they provide”, the regulator said in a statement yesterday.

It will be a tougher nut to crack and also a much more important one in terms of policy setting, currency, and investors’ protection than trying to protect retail investors from themselves by muting their Reddit Wallstreetbets thread on a handful of stocks, in our view.

Perhaps not much will be done against hedge funds’ manipulation and Citadel’s de facto institutionalized front running activities as Citadel is now holding markets for everybody ... which is precisely the problem (they are both a hedge fund and a dominant market maker on options…which have become a huge business).

Complicating matters, J. Yellen was paid USD800k in speaking fees from Citadel and a few other hedge funds in the interim of her job as Fed President and Treasury Secretary.

Talking about hedge funds’ shenanigans and conflicts of interest, the Institutional Investor reported yesterday that “Billionaire Jim Simons’s firm, a quant-investing pioneer, is coming off a rough year. Its three public hedge funds posted double-digit losses in 2020 as their algorithms were thrown out of whack by market swings the computers had never seen before. At the same time, its fund for employees and insiders soared 76% last year, Institutional Investor reported.” Perhaps they bought bitcoins as well…but only for themselves.

Over The Past Week…

Over the past week, the S&P500 rallied 4,8% (3,7% YTD) gaining 4 days in a row while the Nasdaq100 rallied 5,3% (5,6% YTD). The US small cap index rallied 7,8% (13,1% YTD, Z-score 2,5).

Shares finished the week at all-time highs, supported by Washington working on a new USD2.2trn fiscal stimulus, encouraged by Treasury Secretary J. Yellen urging to go big to fix the slowing economy, on improved vaccine distribution, and reassurance that the Federal Reserve will not be raising interest rates any time soon (before 2025?, according to TD Ameritrade, one of the best most reliable economic forecasters).

For the week, Energy gained +8.2%, financials +6.7% and Technology were the strongest sectors, not to speak about Biotech that added 9%. Tesla and bitcoins are moving in tandem now adding respectively 9% and 8% on the week as well.

AAPL rallied 3,6% (3,1%), supporting the idea of its own self driving cars. FB rallied 3,8% (-1,9%). LYFT rallied 19,5% (8,1%, Z-score 2,3). AMZN rallied 4,6% (2,9%). NFLX rallied 3,5% (1,9%). GOOG rallied 14,3% (19,8%, Z-score 2,1). MSFT rallied 4,4% (8,9%). INTC rallied 4,8% (16,8%).

Cboe Volatility Index sold off by -36,9% (-8,3% YTD) to 20,87.

The Eurostoxx50 rallied 5,1% (3,5%), outperforming the S&P500 by 0,3%.

Diversified EM equities (VWO) rallied 5,5% (8,8%), outperforming the S&P500 by 0,7%.

The Dollar DXY Index (UUP) measuring the USD performance vs. other G7 currencies gained 0,5% (1,2%) while the MSCI EM currency index (measuring the performance of EM currencies vs. the USD) gained 0,0% (-0,1%).

Have a nice week ahead and stay safe.


For a Timely receipt of this report and daily updates and to access our intra-day Alert system, join the BentinPartner Daily Free Trial List. You won't regret it.


Marc Bentin, BentinPartner GmbH

Founder, Chief Investment Officer

BentinPartner GmbH is a Swiss-registered independent financial adviser.

We deliver transparent, professional, tailor-made, and competitive portfolio management services. We help our clients build and manage their wealth, resting on the three pillars of our business values; integrity, competence, and responsibility.

For more information about our portfolio management services, check our Beliefs and FAQ’s.

Our premium research blends macro economic, political, monetary and technical analyses to produce an actionable 360 degrees daily review of Global Financial Markets on a daily basis.

If you like our Weekly, you will love our Daily. Take a free trial to the BentinPartner Daily or visit our web site

Bentinpartner GmbH is Advisor to the Phi Funds AIF, an umbrella Alternative Investment Fund registered and regulated in Lichtenstein, specialized in the management of Funds focused on physical precious metals.


Important Disclaimer

© Copyright by BentinPartner llc. This communication is provided for information purposes only and for the recipient's sole use. Please do not forward it without prior authorization. It is not intended as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or underlying asset referenced herein or investment advice. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the suitability of any investment strategy based on their objectives, financial situation, investment horizon and particular needs. This report does not include information tailored to any particular investor. It has been prepared without any regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person who receives this report. Accordingly, the opinions discussed in this Report may not be suitable for all investors. You should not consider any of the content in this report as legal, tax or financial advice. The data and analysis contained herein are provided "as is" and without warranty of any kind. BentinPartner llc, its employees, or any third party shall not have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained in any publication published by BentinPartner llc. The content and views expressed in this report represents the opinions of Marc Bentin and should not be construed as guarantee of performance with respect to any referenced sector. We remind you that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although BentinPartner llc believes the information and content included in this report have been obtained from sources considered reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of such information. This Report is also not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the industries, markets or developments referred to in the Report.

17 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All


bottom of page