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Weekly Trend Status Update

Global markets were uneventful last week, awaiting the outcome of the G20 meeting this week end. Over the past week, the S&P500 dropped -0,3% (17,2% YTD) while the Nasdaq100 dropped -1,0% (21,1% YTD). The US small cap index gained 1,0% (16,1% YTD). CBOE Volatility Index sold off by -2,1% (-40,7% YTD) to 15,08. The Eurostoxx50 added 0,2% (17,7%), outperforming the S&P500 by 0,5%. Diversified EM equities (VWO) gained 0,4% (11,6%), outperforming the S&P500 by 0,8%. The Dollar DXY Index (UUP) measuring the USD performance vs. other G7 currencies ended roughly unchanged gaining 0,1% (2,0%) while the MSCI EM currency index (measuring the performance of EM currencies vs. the USD) added 0,4% (2,2%). USDZAR dropped -1,7% (-1,8%) and was the clear winner last week in this space. It is our belief that the dollar strength of the past two years is likely to continue to reverse not only from US Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot at its last meeting but from a further push into higher yielding EM alternatives, likely to follow the mostly positive outcome of this week end’s (see below) G20 meeting. Currently, two to three cuts in the US are priced for this year, while Citi economists even see a half percentage point cut in July as ‘inevitable’… D. Trump did his part last week yelling and shelling at the Federal Reserve Chairman. He accused the Fed… of doing a ‘bad job’. He blamed Powell “for not lowering interest rates to help the United States compete against China”. He also said that “the U.S. should have Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, at the helm of its monetary policy – ‘instead of our Fed person’ - and reiterated that he has the right to demote or fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. ‘Nobody ever heard of him before, and now I made him and he wants to show how tough he is,’ Trump said… ‘OK, let him show how tough he is. He’s not doing a good job.” Maybe this will give J. Powell just another reason (he pushed back again late last week) not to fire any of his last bullets in July with the positive G20 outcome being another one. But this is unlikely as there seems to be a peer dovish inclination towards the need for more immediate easing, judging from the speech of Agustin Carstens, the BIS General Manager delivered on the occasion of the publication of the BIS annual report this week end. The report is rich as always and I could not go through all of it yet but this year’s announcement that the BIS is setting up an Innovation Hub for central banks was a distinct highlight. Chapter III is most interesting for anyone with an interest on the challenges that banks are facing with the emergence of Big Tech in Finance. The challenges are real… The relentless rally in bonds continued (confirmed by accelerating flows into fixed income ETF’s) on expectations of ever more Central banks’ easing. 10Y US Treasuries rallied -5bps (-68bps) to 2,01%. 10Y Bunds dropped -4bps (-57bps) to -0,33%. 10Y Italian BTPs rallied -5bps (-64bps) to 2,10%, outperforming Bunds by -2bps. 10Y Italian BTPs rallied -5bps (-64bps) to 2,10%, outperforming Bunds by -2bps. As we are clearly heading towards more interest rate cuts… and larger deficits, an interesting development in the swap market materialized with the completion of the transformation in the US swap spread curve which saw on Tuesday the two-year swap rate briefly fell below the two-year Treasury note’s yield, turning the spread negative on that maturity for the first time. Longer-maturity swap spreads have been negative for weeks (5Y) or years (30Y) already. Until the financial crisis, swap rates traded at a positive risk premium to Treasury yields. The inversion eventually expanded from the 30-year sector to shorter tenors in response to new regulatory requirements and China shedding some of its holdings of U.S. debt, Bloomberg reported. For what it is worth Russia has now sold all its Treasury portfolio. There was a small hiccup on high yields last week with the US High Yield (HY) Average Spread over Treasuries climbing 16bps (-149bps) to 3,77%, most likely resulting from a further acceleration in issuance last week, which surpassed the 9 issues seen the previous week. US Investment Grade Average OAS dropped -2bps (-47bps) to 1,25%. In European credit markets, EUR 5Y Senior Financial Spread dropped -3bps (-46bps) to 0,64%. Gold gained 0,7% (9,9%) while Silver dropped -0,2% (-1,2%). Major Gold Mines (GDX) gained 1,4% (21,2%). Bitcoin rallied 22,9% (232,4%) as the appetite for seashells intensified going into the holiday period. More seriously, this is perhaps and barely another reflection of the “liquidity push lifting all boats” anomaly characterising the current investing environment. Platinum rallied 3,1% (4,8%, Z-score 2,8), sending the entire precious metals now in positive trend. Goldman Sachs Commodity Index gained 1,0% (11,7%) with WTI Crude rallying 1,8% (28,8%) ahead of the week end. Over the week end… Positive news came from the G20 over the meeting with D. Trump essentially backing off on additional tariffs against China and caving in announcing that the US will be able to continue to sell non security threatening components to Huawei. Given the lax definition of the concept, this was very encouraging signal with all the hallmarks of a major victory for China. D. Trump also shook hands on Sunday with North Korean leader, announcing that nuclear talks would restart. Harris Kamala judging from the first primary debate that took place did a great job at scaring D. Trump on Saturday, leading him to say during his G20 press conference that her success was exaggerated and that she had been to tough on J. Biden… To receive our daily updates and market reviews, consider our premium research: And join our free trial. 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The data and analysis contained herein are provided "as is" and without warranty of any kind. BentinPartner llc, its employees, or any third party shall not have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained in any publication published by BentinPartner llc. The content and views expressed in this report represents the opinions of Marc Bentin and should not be construed as guarantee of performance with respect to any referenced sector. We remind you that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although BentinPartner llc believes the information and content included in this report have been obtained from sources considered reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of such information. 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