BentinPartner Daily
Over the past week, stocks posted additional gains despite mixed earnings and more evidence of a slowing economy that might require renewed monetary accommodation. Utilities performed best in that context as a defensive play generally supported by lower rates expectations and this time around, also by ever greater needs for electricity and energy to produce it.
May US consumer confidence fell came as a shocker on Friday dropping to 67.4 (from 77.2 in April) as US consumers grew more concerned about high rates, high inflation and rising unemployment. Americans’ expectations for inflation 1 year forward climbed to 3.5% while the Federal Reserve Bank of New York wrote that respondents to a survey expected home prices to climb 5.1% this year (from 2.6% predicted one year ago), leading renters to become more pessimistic about housing affordability. A separate study from San Francisco Fed also showed that consumers had depleted their post pandemic savings, accumulating clouds above the head of consumers and their likely impact on the economy. Nor government nor surveyed data but real pay checks data showed that payroll was down 1% over the past year “on average” across the US which is a big concern for those expecting that a recession can be avoided.
Energy (including oil and nuclear related stocks) remained the strongest sector along with staples and financials.
Stocks but also credit markets rallied last week with companies seizing the opportunity to issue USD53bn last week (the most since 2021) of corporate debt amidst solid investors demand. High Yield markets also saw USD11bn being issued.
While sentiment remained buoyed by lower rates expectations and a supportive technical environment for risk assets, with most of the earnings season now being over (with the notable exception of Nvidia due on May 22d), the “median” market response to 79% of companies beating on earnings was only a 0.1% gain on announcement day, which was the smallest margin since 2020 as traders paid more attention to weaker than expected forward guidance.
Fresh reasons for caution perhaps was more insider selling among the MAG7 (after J. Bezos and M. Zuckerberg’s recent sales). The Chairman of Apple A. Levinson also filed to offload the biggest chunk of shares in 20 years. APPL rallied last week but the upside momentum seems to have exhausted itself somewhat, at least for now, as the chart formed a series of lower highs on each of the recent rallies. The effect of the latest USD110bn buyback program was more than priced in one session (USD180bn market cap added for a USD110bn buyback announcement) but analysts noted that the company will become a net debtor after the completion of the latest buyback operation which might curtail the appetite for such operations in the future (unless financed by debt which is always possible).
Elsewhere, Europe but also China powered ahead, adding strong gains for the week and outperforming the S&P500. (With 60% of the outperformance of the Eurostoxx so far this year due to SAP, ASML and Novonordisk, we added those three shares to the daily score card monitoring, next to the US MAG7.)
Copper briefly surpassed USD10’000 a ton as mines keep struggling to meet the rising demand linked to electrification. Ags also rallied last week, led by wheat as bad weather in Europe and war kept supply constrained and stockpiles at their lowest in 10 years.
Elsewhere in currencies, JPY stabilized as FX intervention was accompanied by Japanese Finance Minister and BoJ Governor holding joint meetings to discuss possible next steps of policy adjustment. In this context, JPY might be worth a tactical (if not more strategic) allocation (the Japanese Big Mac is now one of the cheapest in the world at $3.5 lining up JPY as possibly one of the cheapest currencies as well) while diversification into EM currencies also became more advisable.
The major event next week will be Wednesday’s CPI release. The market went from pricing 7 rate cuts this year to only one and Morgan Stanley reminded over the week end that only inflation is keeping the Fed from cutting rates.
Morgan Stanley, as do many analysts, expects the CPI to deliver a positive surprise (awaiting core CPI at 0.3% due to a small expected drop in housing and service inflation). “…A final technical point is that our US team recently documented that the seasonal adjustment has likely overstated inflation in the first quarter of the year, suggesting some arithmetic payback later. Taking all these factors together, inflation should fall over the year … and when it does, the Fed will start to cut rates.”, Morgan Stanley also wrote.
The Fed being well aware of the weakening economic momentum (jobless claims were also higher last week) could indeed seize this opportunity to revive more aggressive rate cuts expectations for later this year which would then jolt risk assets again, even bonds, possibly giving an opportunity to buy precious metals with a concession this week. That said, we are not confident in inflation heading back down for more than a month or two…and therefore, see no compelling reason to materially lower one’s guard against the risk of inflation, especially as those investors buying precious metals have more than one reason to do so. The geopolitical situation is only getting worse. The de-dollarisation is an impregnating reality which will likely translate into a lower dollar over time, as the so-called Global South further feels compelled to further reduce its dependency on the USD by buying more gold (and CNY).
Over the past week, the S&P500 gained 1,9% (9,6% YTD) while the Nasdaq100 gained 1,5% (7,9% YTD). The US small cap index gained 1,2% (1,8% YTD). AAPL dropped -0,2% (-4,9%).
The Equally Weighed SP500 rallied 2,0% (5,3% YTD), outperforming the S&P500 by 0,2%. The median SP500 YTD return closed the week at 5,2%.
Cboe Volatility Index sold off by -7,0% (0,8% YTD) to 12,55.
The Eurostoxx50 rallied 3,6% (14,4%, Z-score 2,3), outperforming the S&P500 by 1,7%.
Diversified EM equities (VWO) dropped -0,4% (5,7%), underperforming the S&P500 by-2,3%.
The Dollar DXY Index (UUP) measuring the USD performance vs. other G7 currencies gained 0,3% (6,1%) while the MSCI EM currency index (measuring the performance of EM currencies vs. the USD) was unchanged (-0,8%).
10Y US Treasuries rallied -1bps (62bps) to 4,50%. 10Y Bunds climbed 2bps (49bps) to 2,52%. 10Y Italian BTPs climbed 5bps (16bps) to 3,86%, underperforming Bunds by 3bps.
US High Yield (HY) Average Spread over Treasuries climbed 5bps (-25bps) to 2,98%. US Investment Grade Average OAS climbed 2bps (-9bps) to 0,96%.
In European credit markets, EUR 5Y Senior Financial Spread dropped -1bps (-8bps) to 0,60%.
Gold rallied 2,6% (14,4%) while Silver rallied 6,1% (18,4%). Major Gold Mines (GDX) rallied 5,4% (13,7%).
Goldman Sachs Commodity Index gained 0,7% (5,6%). WTI Crude gained 0,2% (9,2%).
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