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Daily Close

J. Yellen’ farewell gift (to D. Trump) was a relatively hawkish statement after the FOMC left rates unchanged, still with the door ajar for three rate hikes later this year. The yield curve moved back to its flattest since 2007 (hawkish statement= fed more likely to tighten to keep the inflation genie inside the bottle and reduce the need to build an inflation premium into long bond yields which will already have supply to cope with as the US heads towards a US1trn budget deficit). The hawkish tone also initially shaved off a feable stock market recovery yesterday, a move that was exacerbated by former Fed Chairman Greespan warning that “we have both a stock and a bond market bubble”. He suggested that “the bond market would ultimately be the critical issue”. Stocks managed to recover, closing marginally higher as did the dollar which reversed an earlier downdraft, at least against DM currencies (it remained firmly lower vs. EM currencies). Bond yields rose 1bp and some risk appetite gauges are still fretting... Just like yesterday stocks are extending overnight.

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