top of page
Search
  • Marc Bentin

Daily Close


Semiconductors (bitcoin related...) and tech stocks rallied early yesterday, keeping the tape together before a 10% decline in Wallmart (“Walmart‘s challenge to the might of Amazon in ecommerce sputtered over the holiday period, sending its shares tumbling”, the FT wrote) moved the pendulum on the other side with leading major indices dropping -0.5% and all of them (except tech and semis) trading below their 50dma. Weakness was broad based with European shares holding better, supported by dollar strength yesterday. EM was weaker across the board (currency, stocks and bonds). US Bonds started weaker but recovered to unchanged as equities headed and closed lower. Bond fundamentals are deteriorating fast with most indicators of inflation now pointing higher and with the supply of US bonds set to double to USD1trn annually, all of that combined with diminishing appetite from Japan and China and the Fed’s ‘planned’ tapering and interest rate hikes. Consensus expectations are for the Fed will hike 3 to 4 hikes this year...we do not think so. 

Spanish Finance Minister was nominated to succeed V. Constancio as Vice President of the ECB which raised Germany’s Weidmann chances to get the top job next year. Just as we were last Friday, we remain cautious after the runaway rally of the past week and are holding a defensive posture. One of the reasons why we distrust last week’s recovery is the fact that the most shorted stocks did best in this recovery ... and that bitcoins continues to rally. This may seem totally unrelated. But when something intrinsically worthless rallies as much as bitcoins did, it devalues the quality of the entire healing process and emphasizes prevailing and unrepenting excesses. It translates into a general misunderstanding of where we stand in the cycle, underlines a total ignorance of warnings, including regulatory ones and spells rising defiance towards the “system”. Still, bitcoin has received the confirmation that it falls short on all criterias to ever be treated as a currency. The blockchain technology is the hype that keeps it together while this technology will be adopted by central banks themselves...who will return to applying pressure against bitcoins and its other lookalikes. Bitcoin is a pure tool to speculate by market participants buying it for no other reason than the fact that it has been going higher, that it has been lobbied successfully by Wall Street and that it nurtures the “get rich fast frenzy” of mostly economically and financially unaware participants. Bitcoins were given a chance to rally after stocks fell sharply at the beginning of the month. At that time, the newsflow went from the xcoins’ proclaimed demise following a serie of regulatory backlashes to ... the s&p500 falling out of bed and vix spiking 40. Everything that is intrinsically worthless ultimately converges to its value and bitcoin will be no exception, in our view. 

Important Disclaimer © Copyright by BentinPartner llc. This blog is not intended as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or underlying asset referenced herein or investment advice. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the suitability of any investment strategy based on their objectives, financial situation, investment horizon and particular needs. This blog does not include information tailored to any particular investor. It has been prepared without any regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person who receives this report. Accordingly, the opinions discussed in this blog may not be suitable for all investors. You should not consider any of the content in this report as legal, tax or financial advice. The data and analysis contained herein are provided "as is" and without warranty of any kind. BentinPartner llc, its employees, or any third party shall not have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained in any publication published by BentinPartner llc. The content and views expressed in this report represents the opinions of Marc Bentin and should not be construed as guarantee of performance with respect to any referenced sector. We remind you that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although BentinPartner llc believes the information and content included in this report have been obtained from sources considered reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of such information. This blog is also not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the industries, markets or developments referred to in the blog.  

#bitcoin #markets

8 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All
bottom of page