After squeezing for a third day on Thursday on easing trade war concerns, the S&P conceded the day’s advance overnight after D. Trump renewed his offensive against Amazon and submitted to the consideration of Congress to add USD100bn worth of supplementary tarriffs against China. Yesterday, JPM CEO J. Dimon issued his yearly letter raising his concerns about the risk of rising interest rates. The dollar rose slightly while gold dropped as risk appetite was buoyed by another day of stock markets gains but Gold recovered overnight.
Market participants are hanging on the swinging rope of the US/Chinese trade negotiation posture and tactics. L. Kudlow will likely repeat to stay the course and buy the overnight dip...
D.Trump does have a case in seeking a better reciprocity in China/US relationship which remains skewed to the disadvantage of the West as China is allowed tonpurchase Western corporations while the opposite is not true (only possible through joint ventures). The question is how long will the nerves of investors will hold with constant scissors effects.... We reckon the Fed will have to freeze its tightening campaign somehow and sooner than generally expected. Gold might be boring but remains an effective hedge against the most extreme scenario.
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