EM currencies tried to stabilize and bounced yesterday with MXN and RUB rallying strongly. The initial EURUSD gap higher to 1.1820 was quickly faded to 1.1780. Speculative positioning published on Friday suggest a too large dollar speculative short positioning, especially in light of Italy’s situation which could translate into the ECB having missed the chance to tighten in this cycle (data are now coming much weaker and the situation in Italy is complicating matters). As a result, we do not read as high the chances of a meaningful rebound in EURUSD over the near term.
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