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From Truce To Cold War To Deleveraging


Over the week end, cold water was thrown on the Trade war truce until ...this afternoon perhaps when US stocks might open lower. Some form of truce remains likely because the markets need it and D. Trump knows it but we are not that confident overall. For what it is worth and adding to all other concerns, mostly related to the deleveraging process that has been initiated, US homebuilders have fallen 36% this year, the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500, taking it to a level associated with recessions. That is spelling trouble for real estate whose exhaustion signs are plentiful. The silver lining for stocks, perhaps, in some ways, and over the short term, might come from credit markets’ jitters of the past week which translated into reduced Fed tightening expectations. 

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