Our Confidometer assesses global risk conditions using a mixture of sentiment, option prices, investment flows and margin debt data to help determine if investor sentiment is excessive or not (thereby raising a green or red flag). Our analysis focussed primarily on the S&P500 which serves as the bellwether equity index for most investors. For a daily update of these indicators and much more with commentaries and actionable content, consider a free trial to the Bentin Daily, our premium research service. For brief daily review, please check our regular blog posts.
We have entered risk aversion although the vix (implied vol on 2 to 3 months options on the s&p500) remains well tamed. Interestingly perhaps, long term vol has started to grind higher. Investors are parting ways with High Yields. judging from the 19% decline in HYG AUM year to date. The so called smart money index still suggests weaker closings than opening which is consistent with a market climbing the proverbial wall of worries.
Tech is what keeps US markets ahead and the reason why everybody owns them. They are currently weakening with monentum broken but trend still holding.
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