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Trend Status Update


1.1.2019 The last months of 2018 have shown how hard and fast markets can fall. Perhaps an equity bear market is upon us. Perhaps a crisis is brewing. Perhaps not. But if you are a “buy and hold” investor, your portfolio likely also suffered in 2018. Trend following offers guidance as to when to get in and when to get out of an asset class with changing trend characteristics. A disciplined and rule-based trend following investment approach can serve as a highly effective portfolio insurance technique. Trend Status Highlights:

The trend for international and US equities remains down, despite some distinct improvement over the past few days.

The dollar uptrend seems to be breaking down vs. G7 counterparts. EM FX is making further headway towards healing as a logical consequence of the expected ending of Fed rate hikes (no more rate hike is priced for next year anymore).

Silver is breaking out of its Bollinger band (2.5STD above its 20dma) on high volume, now sitting right around its 200dma. As such it may join gold in bull trend mode (with GDX nearly there as well) despite other commodities signalling pronounced recession fears (similarly to the yield curve). The gold /silver ratio is showing signs of peaking.

The US bond (IEF) up trend signals economic anguish similarly to High Yield (JNK) of which the technical improvement has lagged recent gains in equity markets.  

Commodities, led by oil remain solidly in negative trend.   

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Important Disclaimer © Copyright by BentinPartner llc. This communication is provided for information purposes only and for the recipient's sole use. Please do not forward it without prior authorization. It is not intended as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or underlying asset referenced herein or investment advice. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the suitability of any investment strategy based on their objectives, financial situation, investment horizon and particular needs. This report does not include information tailored to any particular investor. It has been prepared without any regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person who receives this report. Accordingly, the opinions discussed in this Report may not be suitable for all investors. You should not consider any of the content in this report as legal, tax or financial advice. The data and analysis contained herein are provided "as is" and without warranty of any kind. BentinPartner llc, its employees, or any third party shall not have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained in any publication published by BentinPartner llc. The content and views expressed in this report represents the opinions of Marc Bentin and should not be construed as guarantee of performance with respect to any referenced sector. We remind you that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although BentinPartner llc believes the information and content included in this report have been obtained from sources considered reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of such information. This Report is also not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the industries, markets or developments referred to in the Report.  #fx #forex #investing #markets #riskmanagement #bankingindustry #finances #money #traders #quants


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