Trend Status Update
1.1.2019 The last months of 2018 have shown how hard and fast markets can fall. Perhaps an equity bear market is upon us. Perhaps a crisis is brewing. Perhaps not. But if you are a “buy and hold” investor, your portfolio likely also suffered in 2018. Trend following offers guidance as to when to get in and when to get out of an asset class with changing trend characteristics. A disciplined and rule-based trend following investment approach can serve as a highly effective portfolio insurance technique. Trend Status Highlights:
The trend for international and US equities remains down, despite some distinct improvement over the past few days.
The dollar uptrend seems to be breaking down vs. G7 counterparts. EM FX is making further headway towards healing as a logical consequence of the expected ending of Fed rate hikes (no more rate hike is priced for next year anymore).
Silver is breaking out of its Bollinger band (2.5STD above its 20dma) on high volume, now sitting right around its 200dma. As such it may join gold in bull trend mode (with GDX nearly there as well) despite other commodities signalling pronounced recession fears (similarly to the yield curve). The gold /silver ratio is showing signs of peaking.
The US bond (IEF) up trend signals economic anguish similarly to High Yield (JNK) of which the technical improvement has lagged recent gains in equity markets.
Commodities, led by oil remain solidly in negative trend.
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