US Stocks recouped yesterday’s losses with the S&P500 closing +0.4%, supported by a stabilisation in EM markets (stocks, currencies and bonds!) and some dovish talks from Fed Bullard who questioned the usefulness of the dot plots (we share his skepticism!).
Stocks were unimpressed by US bonds closing at 3.10%(+4bps), a move which materialized despite some dovish pronouncement from Fed Bullard who said the Fed should send a message that the policy rate is at or near neutral levels instead of signaling a string of further hikes.
With bunds closing mostly unchanged, us/eur 10 year spread widened by 4bps as well which has been a major force behind EURUSD weakness and which could very well precipitate further losses in the common currency. Security Advisor Bolton displayed all his diplomatic skills, saying he would apply the “Lybian model” to upcoming discussions with North Korea, causing the North Korean leader to gulp the wrong way at the perspective of suffering the same fate as the former Lybian leader, dampening expectations for the upcoming summit. Italy remained a source worries with Italian bonds climbing 15bps and Italian bank shares trading lower. This did not prevent European shares to follow US stocks higher and the CAC40 to close at a fresh 10 year high, supported by a further weakening in EURUSD which was more idiosyncratic this time as most EM recovered some of their heavy recent losses vs. the USD, including the battered Turkish lira. Gold stabilised after the heavy losses of the past couple of days.
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