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Confidometer Update


Our Confidometer assesses global risk conditions using a mixture of sentiment, option prices, investment flows and margin debt data to help determine if investor sentiment is excessive or not (thereby raising a green or red flag). Our analysis focussed primarily on the S&P500 which serves as the bellwether equity index for most investors. For a daily update of these indicators and much more with commentaries and actionable content, consider a free trial to the Bentin Daily, our premium research service.  For  brief daily review, please check our regular blog posts.

Besides the vix that has stopped being a relevant global risk gauge,there  are not many positive signals enanating from the confidometer today, starting with the jump into risk aversion, the continued rise in EM FX volatility (and further weakness), the cratering in the smart money index (suggesting ever more weakness on closing vs. the opening hour and coordinated adverse moves in the economic surprise index for most economies. 

The continued inversion trend in the US yield curve and the strong decline in core European yields suggest that the ECB might actually never be able to normalize rates at least not in this cycle (as opposed to the Fed) and suggests all round market concerns, boding poorly for the euro (speculators are still fairly long the euro without a good reason, according to the latest COT report). The sharp decline in gold and silver (not appearing here) will provide opportunities to purchase cheap protection and was likely orchestrated on the paper gold market and on option delivery day to free the obligation of having to deliver physical gold in a tight market. 

With EM  weak, safe havens rallying and banks weak and weakening liquidity in most categories, there are reasons for concern. The s&p and nasdaq are holding well  (with fang shares even serving as safe havens...) which is what keeps sentiment from being too tilted on the bear side. 


Important Disclaimer © Copyright by BentinPartner llc. This blog is not intended as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or underlying asset referenced herein or investment advice. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the suitability of any investment strategy based on their objectives, financial situation, investment horizon and particular needs. This blog does not include information tailored to any particular investor. It has been prepared without any regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person who receives this report. Accordingly, the opinions discussed in this blog may not be suitable for all investors. You should not consider any of the content in this report as legal, tax or financial advice. The data and analysis contained herein are provided "as is" and without warranty of any kind. BentinPartner llc, its employees, or any third party shall not have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained in any publication published by BentinPartner llc. The content and views expressed in this report represents the opinions of Marc Bentin and should not be construed as guarantee of performance with respect to any referenced sector. We remind you that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although BentinPartner llc believes the information and content included in this report have been obtained from sources considered reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of such information. This blog is also not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the industries, markets or developments referred to in the blog.  



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