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Mini Rally: Give Thanks


22.Nov.18

Tech and oil and credit stabilized yesterday which was a first encouraging sign following a string of sharp losses. Still, hopes of a V shape recovery have most likely faltered and there is some reconstruction required for the negative trend to reverse, in our view. The OECD revised its global growth outlook from +3.7% to +3.5%, warning against a sharp slowdown in global trade. US data were mixed with durable goods ex the volatile transportation sector climbing just +0.1% in October (from +0.4% expected). The conference board leading economic index also suggested some slowing down although existing home sales registered the expected improvement with a +1.4% monthly growth reported in October. The dollar closed slightly weaker in lack luster trading. It was said that Trade Secretary Navaro, a long time China critic, will not attend the G20 summit and the important meeting between US President D. Trump and Chinese Premier Xi, leaving some hope for improved expectations for the final outcome of the Summit. Prerequisites for further improvement in China/ US trade relations include the need to reduce the US/China trade balance deficit, address the issue Chinese intellectual property rights violations, build efforts to reduce public companies’ subsidies and the need to open the Chinese economy. 

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